Will there be a Brokered Democratic Convention?

by Daveda Gruber:

It appears that there is no clear frontrunner in the Democratic race for the leadership of the party.

The Iowa caucuses are less than six weeks away and there is no outright favorite. In more than a half of a century we have not seen a convention that goes beyond a first ballot but we may see it happen.

If this first ballot does not work out, and it certainly looks like that is a possibility,  we will see a brokered or contested convention.

The last time that either of the major party nominating conventions went past a first ballot was 1952. In that year Adlai Stevenson won the Democratic nomination on the third ballot.

Kathy Sullivan, the Democratic National Committee member from New Hampshire, recently said, “It could happen, it would be exciting to see it go past the first ballot because it would be so unusual.”

Sullivan added, “It’s been a long, long, long time since there’s been a second ballot at a Democratic convention.”

Even if the possibility of a brokered convention is not a strong possibility, conditions in this race could possibly lead to no candidate holding a clear majority of delegates when they head into the July Democratic convention in Milwaukee.

Here’s where the electoral college comes into play. We’ve all heard about superdelegates. These delegates are the party elders and insiders. But the superdelegates were stripped of their power in the 2016 primary battle. After all, Hillary Clinton was destined to win, if only in the minds of the Democrats.

This upcoming election does not have a presumed frontrunner so the superdelegates could become important and their powers would be activated.

They would be free to boost the candidates of their choosing. Their choice is not an easy task. Who could possibly beat the incumbent, President Trump? None, as far as I can see.

The top tier consists of four candidates. They are former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

The donors to the Democrats are a diverse group. Sanders, Warren and even a long shot candidate like tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang could see their campaigns funded by people-powered donations into the primary process.

Online contributions are interfering with the once powerful wealthy donors  who still back more establishment candidates and those candidates would be Biden or possibly Buttigieg.

Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg and environmental advocate Tom Steyer are pouring hundreds of millions of their own money into their own campaigns. That alone could keep them going if they can manage to hang in the race long enough.

If three or four contenders are still standing when heading into April, they would all fall short of the 1,919 delegates that are needed to clinch the nomination on the first ballot.

Sullivan explained, “You’d have to have a situation where multiple candidates come out of the first four states with wins. You’d go into Super Tuesday and have some candidates concentrating in certain states, others in other states, because it’s very expensive to run in all the states on Super Tuesday. Not all the candidates can afford to do that.”

She went on to say, “So if we come out of Super Tuesday with no clear leader and then it becomes a state-by-state contest and then we end up in New York towards the end of April. If after that point we still don’t have [a clear leader], then yes, it goes to the convention and conceivably a second ballot.”

Democratic governors, senators, representatives, former high-ranking lawmakers and leading party officials, who make up the superdelegates, all backed their favorite candidate, Clinton, in 2016.

But after the 2016 election, the DNC pulled back the influence of superdelegates because of the anger of Sanders and his army of progressive supporters.

Now, the superdelegates are only unbound if the convention reaches a second round.

Then there is another scenario.

If one of the candidate gets strong in the early states, the nomination race could be over pretty fast.

In 2004 when then Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts wrapped his nomination early.

If the battle between the candidates goes to a second ballot in Milwaukee, Sullivan maintains that we shouldn’t expect to see a repeat of the contested conventions from the history books.

Sullivan said, “People refer to brokered conventions, which leads you to think of people in smoke-filled rooms making deals, cutting deals. I don’t think you’re going to see deal-making going on because all these people [delegates] are free agents. It would be a very democratic process.”

A Democratic process? Is she suggesting that the 2016 process wasn’t? No, Clinton was the clear choice for everyone in the party even if they cheated Sanders out of it.

Unfortunately for them, they were all wrong. They backed their candidate without any thought that Trump would or could defeat their choice for president.

Personally, I believe Trump will be the winner no matter who the Democrats put up against him.

If I were a Democrat, which I am not, I’d be panicking about now.

New Poll Shows These Candidates Leading

by Daveda Gruber:

A new national poll shows who is leading the still large group of Democrats in the race to become the presidential nominee for 2020.

In a NPR PBS News Hour Marist poll released on Monday which was conducted by Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff, former Vice President Joe Biden is at 24 percent and Bernie Sanders D-VT, at 22 percent in the polling of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters. The numbers are within the survey’s sampling error.

The poll was conducted between December 9th and 11th, with 1,508 registered voters nationwide, which included 704 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. They were questioned by live telephone operators. The margin of error for questions on the Democratic presidential primary is plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.

Other candidates are Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth is at 17 percent after slipping slightly in the poll. South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who was a long-shot climbed to 13 percent support.

Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang is at 5 percent and Senator Cory Booker  D-NJ., Senator Amy Klobuchar D-MN., and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg all at 4 percent.

Senator Michael Bennet D-CO, Representative Tulsi Gabbard D-HI, and former Obama housing secretary and former San Antonio, Texas Mayor Julian Castro are all at 1 percent.

All other candidate else registered at less than 1 percent.

The next debate is scheduled for December 19, 2019 at 9:00 PM at Gersten Pavilion at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, California.

The field is large and diverse but the question in most American’s minds is can anyone of these candidates beat President Trump.

What say you? Can a Democratic candidate beat Trump?

Which Democrat Will be Next to Drop Out of the Race?

by Daveda Gruber:

As time goes on, the group of presidential runners for the Democratic nomination is slowly shrinking. The next person to be stepping out of the race will most likely be the man who had a Spartacus moment earlier this year.

Senator Cory Booker’s D-NJ., campaign manager, Addisu Demissie, sent out a memo to staffers that warned that Booker must raise an additional $1.7 million by the end of the third quarter of fundraising, which is only 10 days away. If this can’t be done, Booker’s campaign will not have a “legitimate long-term path forward.”

Two sources have allegedly explained that the memo was leaked to NBC News and for good reason. There is now an ongoing effort to spark a rise in fundraising over the next ten days.

Booker tweeted this:

On Saturday morning a campaign memo was sent to political reporters.

The memo reads, “This isn’t an end-of-quarter stunt or another one of those memos from a campaign trying to spin the press. This is a real, unvarnished look under the hood of our operation at a level of transparency unprecedented in modern presidential campaigns.”

Booker had built an intimidating operation in the early voting primary and caucus states. Large staff on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire, and other early voting states is rather expensive to maintain.

Demissie has warned that while the campaign can continue at its current size and strength,  it does need more funding if it wants to expand to what it needs to be.

Demissie wrote in the memo, “If our campaign is not in a financial position to grow, he’s not going to continue to consume resources and attention that can be used to focus on beating Donald Trump, which needs to be everyone’s first priority.”

Booker launched his run for president early in February and qualified for the third and fourth round Democratic presidential primary debates.

The New Jersey Senator raised 4.5 million in the April-June second quarter of fundraising. That many sound like a lot but it actually is far behind former Vice President, Joe Biden; Senator from Vermont, Bernie Sanders; Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren; and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.

But Booker has also struggled in polling. He averages in the low to mid-single digits, which is far behind the top-tier contenders who are former Vice President Joe Biden and Senators  Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.

From what I see, one of these top three will be the Democratic nominee.

Human Trafficking, Selfie Sticks, a Coke and a Smile

I refer to it as the 80 -20 rule.  Eighty percent of you agree with what I am saying on a regular basis.  You are strong, fearless, and knowledgeable of what is happening in today’s society and around the world. You offer support, respectful insight, and information while spreading our message all over America.

You read the entire column.

Even our responsible first time readers, which we have every day, don’t finish the current column and then opine, “well you seem to understand the problems (thanks Sheldon Cooper) but how would you fix it?”

Our first time readers already know we have problems, recognize their own voice, words, and frustration, and exercise their energy and belief in personal responsibility and take THIRTY SECONDS to surf down the page or go to our website to find lo and behold the answers to all of their questions have been covered in column after column or video for the last SIX MONTHS.

This is you.  This is the 80 percent.  American men and women who get up at the crack of dawn every day and return home after sunset from a long day of work.  A hard but meaningful eight to ten to twelve to sometimes fourteen hour day of American sweat and equity without complaint.

You live in the real world and do what needs to be done because it needs to be done!

You don’t need me to explain things.  You don’t need to be led to water.

You are carrying the water for millions of others and only drink when absolutely necessary because that’s what Americans do!

Our predicament is understood by you on a visceral and financial level.  You know these things aren’t “complicated” or impossible to fix.

It takes ethics and perseverance.

Two things all of you have.

That’s why we refer to it as Shoulder to Shoulder.  We are in this together gathering one voice at a time.  No responsible voice is more or less important than the next.  We need them all and lovers of America are gathering, hungry to replace oppression with freedom.

Then we have the twenty percent.

Fifteen percent still support Obama.  This is an egregious error because it hardens the rest of us in our belief that they simply will not learn.  They have the capacity but choose to not deal in facts and reality.

We are a forgiving people but when we as a society understand their behavior is due to ignorance rather than intellect our compassion disappears.  I have warned about the pendulum swinging back for quite a while.

Energy of any kind doesn’t build momentum and then stop where you think it should.  When the box has been wound and wound no one of the “progressive” mind set should be surprised when Jack is in their face.

Every action has a reaction and the abuse laid upon the American people by Republican and Democratic politicians and those who continue to support these overt liars is now searching for an outlet.

The anger coming with this momentum is going to be tremendous.

The collapsing systems all around us will only increase America’s frustration.

Let me give you an example of ignorance rather than intellect.  I just finished reading a column in the Huffington Post.  Yes I know.  But I make it point to read “HuffPo”, Salon, and listen to as much of MSNBC as I can stomach.

Although I appreciate different opinions…propaganda and out right lies are a threat to freedom.

I watch, read, and listen to ascertain whether or not the progressive/oppressive mind set is barreling further off the rails.  Friends close enemies closer and although I hate to say it some of these people are enemies of freedom.

Nothing wrong with America.  Definitely something wrong with some Americans.

The column in HuffPo started out with a complete rewrite of American history followed by a layering of racism or as it is called these days, “white guilt”, “white privilege”, or white man bad”.  The writer then moved on to explain how America is living on borrowed time because of the Bible thumpers, climate deniers, and slavery.

Yes slavery.

Apparently no one has gotten over it, never mind the fact, that most people under the age of 35 couldn’t tell you anything about the Emancipation Proclamation, by whom this was proclaimed, or in what CENTURY this took place.

Nope…slavery alive and well.

Well…part of that is correct.

Slavery is alive and well and happening right now through our border.  It’s called Human Trafficking and some young girl or woman was just sold to the highest bidder.

So yes slavery does exist.

Maybe the writer should be focusing on what’s happening TODAY rather than centuries ago.  But then again that wouldn’t fit the agenda of self-loathing and the propping up of the current failure in the White House who is probably golfing somewhere.

Selfie Stick Slick who meets with Fruit Loop bathers and Pimps with Limps is ready to approve a Nuclear Arms deal with Iran.

Sounds about right.

Finally we have the 5 percent.  These are the people who abhor Obama, complain nonstop about all politicians and rant over and over that we need “regular” Americans in politics.

When one is found, willing to put themselves on the line in service to America…the 5 percent attack.

They won’t do any research.  They won’t listen to their friends.  They won’t bother getting involved because “it will never happen” or what does this “regular” person know about politics.  They moan about the problem but are unwilling to help when a new way arrives.  They’d rather gripe than take the time to really do something and we certainly won’t see them putting their NAME on the line.

I call this the “Eeyore Effect”.

We all know some of these people.  What’s amazing to me is how impressed they are with their own intelligence and life experience. They have all the answers never mind the fact that it’s America who carries them to water and holds them as they drink so they don’t drown in their own self-righteous indignation.

I actually prefer the Obama supporters to the Eeyores.  At least we know where the Selfie Stick supporters stand.

The Eeyores cause much more damage due to their Trojan Horse belief system.

As I’ve said plenty of times.  I am not here to convince.  I am here to inspire.

If you need convincing of our issues or think things are just fine…well…Hillary, Elizabeth, Jeb, or Marco would all appreciate you sending them a check.

They all take money, are career politicians, get paid by our tax dollars, and love the border just the way it is.

But if you are tired of the lies, the debt, slavery, and the overt disrespect to our military and tax paying citizens…then join us.

Someone who knows me very well was asked a question recently.

“Did you think Jason would try something like this?”

With a small nod, “if you really know Jason you know this isn’t about him.  He’s a very private person and I am a bit surprised he is willing to share so much about his life.”

They continued with a wry smile, “but once Jason says he is going to do something either get on board or get out of the way.  He’ll run you over.”

As I’ve told people many times I will not stop.  But the statement above is true.  This isn’t about me.  It never was, is, or will be.  It’s about America.  It’s about you.  It’s about us.

It’s about the 80 percent who show up every day proclaiming for the world to hear,

“We Are Americans and we love OUR country!”

So to all you Obama acolytes and Eeyore ingenues…

Have a Coke and a smile.

The Freedom Train is coming through.

Jason Kraus

04-19-2015

“Late Bird” by Jason Kraus

Restoring a nation one voice at a time.

www.aleadernotapolitician.com